Global Warming and Peak Oil
I would bet that for every person who is aware of peak oil, there are maybe 50 who are aware of global warming.
This bothers me.
Please don't get me wrong; I think that global warming is a serious problem that merits concern. We know that global warming has been and is happening. Even if we're not sure to what extent it's caused by human activity, it's still something to worry about. We should all be sobered by the fact that the earth's climate has gone through some dramatic changes over its history.
But I think that peak oil is much more serious.
And why do I say that?
With global warming, we're really not sure how things are going to play out in the future. Yes, a runaway greenhouse effect could happen, but it's not a certainty. As Kunstler points out in The Long Emergency, there's also a real possibility that the earth's climate could reverse and average annual temperatures could start falling. There are a lot of factors that come into play, like the earth's ocean currents, etc.
But worldwide oil production will peak. It's not a matter of if, but it's a matter of when. We don't know how sharp the peak will be, or if oil production will have an extended "bumpy plateau phase," but sooner or later global oil production will go into a terminal decline. Right now we can't be sure of how severe its consequences will be, but considering that virtually everything in our world depends on oil in one way or another, it's safe to say that things are going to get very ugly. Maybe some technological advances and a few other energy sources will soften the "crash." But considering how much oil we need for our energy and chemical products, it's doubtful that we'll be able to keep the world going the way we have for the last several decades. In other words, GDP will stop rising, exponential population growth will stop, and suburban "growth" will come grinding to a halt.
Admittingly, I don't know nearly as much about global warming as I do about peak oil. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe global warming will take a greater toll on our world than peak oil will.
But it still disturbs me that the overwhelming majority of Americans are still in the dark about peak oil.
How do we change that?
This bothers me.
Please don't get me wrong; I think that global warming is a serious problem that merits concern. We know that global warming has been and is happening. Even if we're not sure to what extent it's caused by human activity, it's still something to worry about. We should all be sobered by the fact that the earth's climate has gone through some dramatic changes over its history.
But I think that peak oil is much more serious.
And why do I say that?
With global warming, we're really not sure how things are going to play out in the future. Yes, a runaway greenhouse effect could happen, but it's not a certainty. As Kunstler points out in The Long Emergency, there's also a real possibility that the earth's climate could reverse and average annual temperatures could start falling. There are a lot of factors that come into play, like the earth's ocean currents, etc.
But worldwide oil production will peak. It's not a matter of if, but it's a matter of when. We don't know how sharp the peak will be, or if oil production will have an extended "bumpy plateau phase," but sooner or later global oil production will go into a terminal decline. Right now we can't be sure of how severe its consequences will be, but considering that virtually everything in our world depends on oil in one way or another, it's safe to say that things are going to get very ugly. Maybe some technological advances and a few other energy sources will soften the "crash." But considering how much oil we need for our energy and chemical products, it's doubtful that we'll be able to keep the world going the way we have for the last several decades. In other words, GDP will stop rising, exponential population growth will stop, and suburban "growth" will come grinding to a halt.
Admittingly, I don't know nearly as much about global warming as I do about peak oil. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe global warming will take a greater toll on our world than peak oil will.
But it still disturbs me that the overwhelming majority of Americans are still in the dark about peak oil.
How do we change that?
posted by Utah Peaknik at 12:33 PM
1 comments
