When will it snap?
About a year ago, I was driving on I-15 through Farmington and Kaysville, and I was taken back by how many new subdivisions there were on the west side of the freeway. I can still remember when it seemed like there were no houses west of the freeway in that area, and I thought about Legacy, and how it will be when Davis County will be built out.
But then it hit me - I had one of those cold slaps on the face, if you will. I realized that this thing that many happily tout as "growth" and "progress" can't go on forever. What happens when Davis County is built out? Will Morgan County look like the Davis County of today? What about west Weber County? How far will the sprawl march? Could we handle a drought in 30 years if our population was double what it is now? How much farmland can be gobbled up, even though the populations of both Utah and the world keep growing exponentially? If the Wasatch Front could no longer import its food, could we feed ourselves with the population and amount of farmland that we have now?
There's only a fixed amount of water in the world (and a small percentage of that is clean, fresh water), a finite amount of steel, and a finite amount of other metals. The world only has so much land, and gets only so much sunlight. Logistically, the world can only support a certain amount of people, and it doesn't look like we'll have the means to colonize Mars or the moon anytime soon.
But then it hit me - I had one of those cold slaps on the face, if you will. I realized that this thing that many happily tout as "growth" and "progress" can't go on forever. What happens when Davis County is built out? Will Morgan County look like the Davis County of today? What about west Weber County? How far will the sprawl march? Could we handle a drought in 30 years if our population was double what it is now? How much farmland can be gobbled up, even though the populations of both Utah and the world keep growing exponentially? If the Wasatch Front could no longer import its food, could we feed ourselves with the population and amount of farmland that we have now?
There's only a fixed amount of water in the world (and a small percentage of that is clean, fresh water), a finite amount of steel, and a finite amount of other metals. The world only has so much land, and gets only so much sunlight. Logistically, the world can only support a certain amount of people, and it doesn't look like we'll have the means to colonize Mars or the moon anytime soon.
And when will it all snap? What will finally send gas prices spiraling upward, never to come back down? Will it be some sort of terrorist attack or other problem in Saudi Arabia? Will it be when both the government and the corporate media openly report that world oil production is peaking? Will it be something else that will make people panic? Would our society be able to survive in a world with dwindling energy?
posted by Utah Peaknik at 3:19 PM
2 Comments:
I think "build-out" in Davis county, Salt Lake county, and elsewhere will be a lot farther in the future than everyone seems to think, if ever. Home construction is starting to slow dramatically. With rising interest rates, the exhaustion of the supply of creditworthy home buyers, and severe speculation induced overbuilding and overpricing, there just aren't enough worthy buyers. I think suburban growth will go into slow motion for a while, and then peak oil realities will make it grind to a halt. The new trend will be transit-oriented infill redevelopment as people realize they must integrate public transit into their lifestyles or be impoverished by operating thier automobiles.
Picture mixed use communities replacing strip retail and parking lots all along State Street, with a streetcar running up and down the length.
I hope you will consider changing to black text on a light background. I know the white text on a dark background is dramatic but it's tiring to read.
Good luck with your blog.
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