Open questions
What percentage of Americans (or Utahns) have an adequate understanding of peak oil and its consequences? What's the percentage of people who've heard about peak oil but don't really grasp its seriousness? How many people are absolutely clueless?
posted by Utah Peaknik at 9:08 PM
4 Comments:
Unfortunately, peaknik, it looks like awareness of peak oil and it's consequences in Utah will only rise to a significant level after bad things start happening. By then we will have lost much of our freedom to make adaptations for a post peak world. Our new multibillion dollar freeways will become little used monuments to our lack of foresight.
If anyone wanted to discuss peak oil's implications for Utah, they could enter "peak oil utah" in google and your blog would pop up at the top of the search. The fact that no one is showing up is discouraging.
Good question.
If you ask often enough, you show up on the radar screen.
Actually, to answer your question one would have to conduct a statistically significant survey (a poll). That costs money. Something the Peak Oil community does not yet have.
However, one related question is how many Americans work in "science"? Suprisingly, the answer I found from a brief Google search is about 2%, meaning that 98% don't. While that may sound alarming, realize we are talking about a population of 300 million people. Most just get in the car, turn the key and the car magically "goes" for them. Similarly, the stuff at the gas station is magically always there because "The Markets provide." Simple as that.
Don't get discouraged. A few years ago, 99% of Americans hadn't heard of Global Warming. :-)
I'm new to the Peak Oil understanding.
I wonder if someone could briefly shed some light on a couple of commentaries that attempt to refute the validity of Peak Oil? Thanks!
Commentaries on the Richard Heinberg book Powerdown:
"I'm an (unemployed) agronomist and I live in Brazil.About this book, I must tell you that I readn't it.In fact, a friend of me, send parts of this bad book to me, by e-mail, from America.
She was scare, about the doomed prophecies of this book.
There's so many frauds writen in this book, that I can't count the majority of then.
1)This book claims that end of nitrogen from natural gas, will doom modern agriculture and spread famine.In fact, fertilizers with nitrogen can (and are) be produced with hydrogen from eletrolysis of water, using wind, hydro or nuclear energy.At the same time, using genetical engeneering, vegetables such as corn or wheat will produce his own nitrogen.We must see that soybean don't use nitrogen's fertilizers, because bacterias inside his roots made his nitrogen's fertilizers, without artificial fertilizers.This second alternative will produce cheap harvests, without fertlizers with nitrogen.
2)This book claims that climbing oil prices will doom the world.In fact, whith more oil's price, the alternatives of oil will became better than ever.Ethanol in Brazil costs less then US$50,00 each brent.The Athabasca's oil sands are bigger than all Iraq's oil reserves.The shale oil has trillions of brents in the world.If you ad hydrogen to corn plant, you will produce oil.In other words:there's many future alternatives to the oil."
"Ecologists are anti-capitalistic! These alarmist always want to destroy consumption and quality of life. Conservation never reduces consumption. Innovation provides the only answers.
Oil has never been a growth oriented commodity. The only growth oriented commodity is electricity and hydrogen. Innovations in fusion energy will eventual change the availablity of cheap energy into a higher quality energy called electricity. Fossil fuels have a limited life and the next generation of energy needs to take center stage. Resource wars about the control of money, not about the availability of energy. The earth has trillions of watts of energy all renewable and available. Innovation too higher quality energy will create a vast number of new appliances that will consume more energy. The trend is toward more energy consumption, not less. For example, high definition plasma TVs migrating too 3D holographic TVs generated with low power lasers; hydrogen fuel cell automobiles; photo electric home power generation; and increase digital logic in communication and business.
The world is not overpopulated, the more people the better because capitalism will provide for their needs. Only socialism and communism can destory the sanctity of life. The illusion that land is scarce is all hyped. There is plenty of land for growth.
There is infinite power available. There are always alternatives to war and violence. "Powerdown" has the makings of a terrible novel and his conclusions are potentially all wrong. Ecologist have the most illogical ideas: 1. populations control 2. Conservation ideology 3. anti-capitalism 4. and improverishment.
What are the alternatives to oil? Power mills. Nanotechnology power mills are the next generation of power. A single power mill that can fit in the palm off your hand can provide enough power to run a semi tractor. Power mills will provide nearly infinite electricity. The next technology will be computer intense, powermill core based, and transfer electricity to computer controlled actuators.
The trend will be away from oil commodities and towards electricity. Electricity generation will be localized (homebased powermill, hydrogen generators) (no more power lines needed), wireless communication, and increased digitalization. Infinite power plays havoc with the power of large banks and corporations that unfairly use their power, wealth too gain profitable trade agreements. The author tries to argue that free markets are not perfectly rationale. Well, he stinks! Free markets are perfectly rationale because innovation redistributes both wealth and power. No company monopoly can escape the constructive destructive power of capitalism. China and the US will continue to expand economically and avoid irrational outcomes because capitalism will provide alternatives to war through innovations, as in the case of power mills. Once powermills are a rational alternative to oil, the market force will drive adoption of the technology.
The ecologist are screaming about "climate changes" and food shortages. Scarcity is a distribution problem; scarcity is a political control issue; and banks create scarcity. US Farmers have more than enough capacity to feed the world.
Deforestation is a legitimate factor causing climate changes, but will result in more artifical environments to mitigate the disruptive forces of drought and scarcity. The trend will be towards more "greenhouse" food production for local food consumption. Food scarcity is not a product of lacking capacity; it is a function of artificial scarcity. Israel provides an alternative view of food scarcity as it has learned to bring water to the desert and make it blossom like a rose."
Thanks again!
Jawanza
"Artificial Scarcity". Good job to whoever said this, as it led me here to speak with you.
Let's say you have two acres of land to raise food for your family. But, suddenly, instead of food, the country you live in requires you to grow POT on one of your two acres, so the county and the state can stay high and stupid.
Suddenly your land and food have become "scarce" for the sake of high-times in the city, and you fear for the survival of your family. Further, you are angry, as you recognize this scarcity has not come through any natural means. Rather your own land has been fenced off -- artificially isolated for the profit of a few --leaving your family and friends to starve and wonder why.
"Ethanol": How can you possibly feed your kids when you're blowin' food out your tail-pipe, "America"? Are you really that stupid? I don't think you are. I think you're just scared and lazy.
But there are alternate solutions to the "artificial scarcity" imposed upon us by Big Oil. For instance, Check out the MDI Air Car. It's worth your attention, along with other viable alternatives to -- "Artificial Scarcity".
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