Legacy Highway
A lot of Legacy supporters also believe that the population of the Wasatch Front will just keep getting bigger and bigger, with no end in sight. They say that we need the new highway (or parkway, if you want to get picky with terminology) to accommodate our current needs, and because we're only going to "grow" (i.e. sprawl) even more.
So then, my question is this - if we really are just going to keep growing indefinitely, then what are we going to do when we have regular traffic jams on both I-15 and Legacy? Where are we going to build a new highway? On Antelope Island? Through the Great Salt Lake? Will we have to condemn a mile long corridor of buildings through Davis County for a new highway? Maybe have a tunnel highway under Legacy or I-15?
But the reality is that Legacy might be one of the greatest wastes of taxpayer money in the history of the state of Utah. Five years from now or sooner, the price of a gallon of gasoline could skyrocket to something that would make $3 a gallon look really cheap. At that point, people really would be forced to move closer to their jobs, get new employment closer to home, take mass transit to work, or form car pools. And since population growth indirectly depends on oil production increasing, it's possible that Utah's population will stagnate or even decline, since a decline in worldwide oil production will also mean a decline in food production and the fuel needed to transport the food.
With the number and duration of car trips being reduced dramatically, we would probably be just fine with one major route through Davis County. I know that's hard to believe, but if gas cost you $8 a gallon by the summer of 2009, you probably wouldn't be driving from your house in east Layton to your office in downtown SLC five times a week anymore.
It's not a pleasant thought, but it could happen.
So then, my question is this - if we really are just going to keep growing indefinitely, then what are we going to do when we have regular traffic jams on both I-15 and Legacy? Where are we going to build a new highway? On Antelope Island? Through the Great Salt Lake? Will we have to condemn a mile long corridor of buildings through Davis County for a new highway? Maybe have a tunnel highway under Legacy or I-15?
But the reality is that Legacy might be one of the greatest wastes of taxpayer money in the history of the state of Utah. Five years from now or sooner, the price of a gallon of gasoline could skyrocket to something that would make $3 a gallon look really cheap. At that point, people really would be forced to move closer to their jobs, get new employment closer to home, take mass transit to work, or form car pools. And since population growth indirectly depends on oil production increasing, it's possible that Utah's population will stagnate or even decline, since a decline in worldwide oil production will also mean a decline in food production and the fuel needed to transport the food.
With the number and duration of car trips being reduced dramatically, we would probably be just fine with one major route through Davis County. I know that's hard to believe, but if gas cost you $8 a gallon by the summer of 2009, you probably wouldn't be driving from your house in east Layton to your office in downtown SLC five times a week anymore.
It's not a pleasant thought, but it could happen.
posted by Utah Peaknik at 4:33 PM
11 Comments:
I hope any Utah Policy fans who followed the link to this post will stick around long enough to voice their opinion about peak oil. Do YOU think it's BS? Why?
This is a serious issue with profound implications for all of our futures and we ought to be discussing it.
Pardon me Google, but I didn't understand what you meant by "Do YOU think it's BS? Why?"
Do I think peak oil is BS? I'd like to believe that it is, but I'm deeply disturbed because the evidence is all too strong.
Was my statement that Legacy would be a waste of taxpayer money BS? Time will only tell. It all depends on how long it will take for peak oil realities to set in (arguably it's already starting), and how fast it sets in.
I followed the link from Utah Policy Daily also. My take on peak oil is less pessimitic than Matthew Simmons and James Kunstler. I read the Long Emergency back in March and have been soaking up peak oil, resource depletion, sustainable living, alternitive energy, etc since. I tried reading a few of Kunstler's blogs but found his language too foul to continue. Just consider the name he choose for his main rant blog of ClusterF*** Nation. Despite agreeing with some of the peak oil premises I really think that the doomer mentality is useless. We will transition to an economy less dependent on oil, because we won't have much choice, but I don't beleive all the choas, gloom and doom that so many peakers seem to glory in.
As for Legacy parkway being a waste of money, yes I would agree, but it will get plenty of use from oil tankers hauling costly, but available, oil from oil shale and tar sands from the south and east of Utah. I just hope that they don't try and refine it all in SL and Weber county. We will continue to pump and use vast amounts of oil for a long time, just not as much as (most) everyone would like.
See my profile for my blogs if your interested in more of my thoughts on the subject.
google_peak_oil - please start your own blog so that you can have more direct feedback on your thoughts. I've seen your comments on numerous blogs but there is no way to give you feedback without your own blog or posting an email address.
Peaknik:
If you read my question in context, you should realize that I was adressing it to visitors who followed the link to your post from the Aug. 16 Utah Policy. I don't doubt that you "get it".
My position on the Legacy Parkway is in complete agreement with yours. I was trying to introduce the peak oil argument into the Legacy debate a couple years ago. I was trying to point out that in light of peak oil and the dramatic changes it would impose on our transportation habits, any money spent on growing traffic capacity would be money wasted.
Matthew:
I had considered starting my own blog but hadn't found the time. I don't think there should be more than one blog for peak oil in Utah, it dilutes the conversation too much. And peaknik beat me to it. I have tried to steer Utahns who might want to talk about peak oil towards this blog.
As far as the what the future of diminished energy will be like, I don't understand what all the wild speculation is about. Most people in other parts of the world live a lifestyle that consumes far less energy and resources than ours. Our lives will simply change to more closely resemble theirs. The one thing that will be different is that we have spent the last century rebuilding our nation on the premise that everyone would have a car and affordable fuel at their disposal. Living in a auto-dependent sprawlscape with severely reduced use of the car will be our biggest problem.
I do agree with Kunstler that the effort to keep our lifestyle and automobility the way it is now by other means is delusional and doomed to failure. It would be much better to take a cold impartial look at the compulsive consumption society we have become and think about whether we want to remain that way even if we could.
I am familiar with your blogs and have commented on them a couple times.
You can email me at
dansimon (AT) xmission (DOT) com
"...in light of peak oil and the dramatic changes it would impose on our transportation habits, any money spent on growing traffic capacity would be money wasted."
Amen.
Some days I find myself angry. I'm angry that I was born into this poorly planned, car dependant world of ours, and that there's not a whole lot I can do to change that. I do try to drive as little as possible, and walk and/or take transit whenever I can, but it's not easy. If I want to go to work w/o having to use my car, I have to use two different bus routes, with 20 minutes of waiting in between and about 25 minutes of walking. If I drive, it just takes me about 30 minutes. But even as I write this I'm trying to get in a situation where I'm much closer to work, so we'll see.
I'm just amazed at how many people know nothing about peak oil. I went to the farmers market in Ogden on Saturday, and there was a booth for the Sierra Club. They were giving out these pamphlets about energy and Utah's use of coal. I asked the lady if she knew anything about peak oil, and she didn't. About a month ago I was talking with a friend who was going on and on about walkable communities, hydrogen cars, and other energy topics. He also had never heard about worldwide peak oil production.
If everyone acknowledged peak oil and its possible implications and what we might have to do as a society, I'd feel much better. But what worries me is that there are going to be millions of people who are going to be dragged kicking and screaming when peak oil realities start taking hold. People think it's their God-given entitlement to drive anywhere they want (on government provided roads of course), and to build large homes in far-flung areas on what used to be farmland.
" If I want to go to work w/o having to use my car, I have to use two different bus routes, with 20 minutes of waiting in between and about 25 minutes of walking. If I drive, it just takes me about 30 minutes."
I have a similar tale of woe when it comes to using the bus. I walk a mile to reach the bus stop. The bus takes me a mile. I then walk an additional mile and a half to get to work. The process takes just over an hour. Driving would take me 10 minutes.
But I don't blame the public transportation system. A public transportation system that is grafted on to a hundred square miles of low density auto dependent sprawlscape can only accomplish so much. When I bought my house I was peak oil ignorant. I made the same unconcious assumption everyone else does that all my family transportation needs would be served by our cars. Today I would make sure to choose a place within easy walking distance of at least a grocery store and a core route bus stop. (like the #70)
"But what worries me is that there are going to be millions of people who are going to be dragged kicking and screaming when peak oil realities start taking hold."
When it starts to become obvious that we are in an energy crisis unlike any other, I think people will seperate into two groups. The first group will quickly wake up and smell the coffee, realize that things will be different from now on, and make an effort to adapt to the new realities. The second group will continue to borrow and spend whatever it costs to continue living in the way they have all their lives, until they are bankrupt and impoverished.
At some point, there won't be anything left to borrow and spend against. That will be a bad day.
I am a "peak oil" neophite, but am trying to learn, trying to be responsible.
However, I do make the point in several blog posts that we just can't continue like we are, thinking that all we have to do is think about three weeks in front of us. The problem is as much political as it is planning-related.
But make no mistake, it IS a problem, and it's not going away. It's the dead cat on the table that nobody's talking about yet, because it doesn't quite stink enough yet.
And thanks for stopping by my spot. I appreciate it.
At some point, there won't be anything left to borrow and spend against. That will be a bad day.
I am a "peak oil" neophite, but am trying to learn, trying to be responsible.
However, I do make the point in several blog posts that we just can't continue like we are, thinking that all we have to do is think about three weeks in front of us. The problem is as much political as it is planning-related.
But make no mistake, it IS a problem, and it's not going away. It's the dead cat on the table that nobody's talking about yet, because it doesn't quite stink enough yet.
And thanks for stopping by my spot. I appreciate it.
At some point, there won't be anything left to borrow and spend against. That will be a bad day.
I am a "peak oil" neophite, but am trying to learn, trying to be responsible.
However, I do make the point in several blog posts that we just can't continue like we are, thinking that all we have to do is think about three weeks in front of us. The problem is as much political as it is planning-related.
But make no mistake, it IS a problem, and it's not going away. It's the dead cat on the table that nobody's talking about yet, because it doesn't quite stink enough yet.
And thanks for stopping by my spot. I appreciate it.
At some point, there won't be anything left to borrow and spend against. That will be a bad day.
I am a "peak oil" neophite, but am trying to learn, trying to be responsible.
However, I do make the point in several blog posts that we just can't continue like we are, thinking that all we have to do is think about three weeks in front of us. The problem is as much political as it is planning-related.
But make no mistake, it IS a problem, and it's not going away. It's the dead cat on the table that nobody's talking about yet, because it doesn't quite stink enough yet.
And thanks for stopping by my spot. I appreciate it.
At some point, there won't be anything left to borrow and spend against. That will be a bad day.
I am a "peak oil" neophite, but am trying to learn, trying to be responsible.
However, I do make the point in several blog posts that we just can't continue like we are, thinking that all we have to do is think about three weeks in front of us. The problem is as much political as it is planning-related.
But make no mistake, it IS a problem, and it's not going away. It's the dead cat on the table that nobody's talking about yet, because it doesn't quite stink enough yet.
And thanks for stopping by my spot. I appreciate it.
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